Answer
High dose risk to rats = 5/200 = 1/40. Current low dose in humans is
2/1000, or 1/500, of the rat dose. The risk to humans is thus
(1/40)*(1/500) = 1/20,000 or 10 fatalities in the given population.
Reducing the human dose to 1 mg would lower the risk to
(1/40)*(1/1,000) = 1/40,000, or 5 fatalities in the population. The
value of reducing the dose is thus 5 lives saved times $6M or $30M.
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Peter J Wilcoxen, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
Revised 05/10/2006