The Maxwell School
Syracuse University
Syracuse University
Suppose that 5% of a given population has a disease that is difficult to detect. Call the state where the person has the disease D and the state where they don't have it N. A test for the disease is available that reports rD or rN for whether or not the person has the disease. However, it's imperfect: if the person has the disease (D), there is a 10% chance it will report they don't have it, rN. In addition, there's also a 10% chance that it will report that a person who doesn't have the disease (N) has it, rD.